U.S. Leading Indicators, Retail Sales, And Atlanta Fed Forecast Signal Strength

The U.S. economy has slowed since 2018’s fast pace but is continuing to grow at a moderate pace and shows no sign a recession is likely occur.  

After declining slightly in February, the strong rise in the index of leading economic indicators dashed fears of a recession.

The LEI rose by four-tenths of 1% in March —  in line with the Federal Reserve’s expectations — and nothing like the precipitous dip that in the past preceded a recession.  

Retail sales, a key fundamental in the U.S.’s consumer-driven economy, were up sharply in the 12 months through March.

Excluding gasoline, which often can mask retail sales trends because of its volatility, the 3.7% growth rate was higher than at the peak of the last economic expansion.

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