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FULBRIGHT FINANCIAL CONSULTING, PA 

FULBRIGHT & FULBRIGHT, CPA, PA


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Is A Stock Bubble Bursting?

Is A Stock Bubble Bursting? Stocks plunged as much 6.6% last week, and, even though prices rebounded sharply by the end of the week, fear remains widespread. Despite the grim mood, the evidence is strong that the stock market is not in a bubble and that the economy is chugging along, on track for a long, slow ride to recovery. For a bubble in stock prices, irrational exuberance must be widespread, like it was during tech bubble of 2000. It’s not! Nothing like that is happening now! Covid crushed consumer confidence in March and April. Much of the uncertainty is caused by the runaway gains of the giant tech stocks. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft – the FAANGM – have led the recovery from the pandemic, leaving the broad market in the dust. And, because the major indexes are weighted by market capitalization, the super return on the giant FAANGM has powered a 42% gain in the S&P 500 since the March 23rd. 2020 bear-market low. The turbocharged returns of the major market indexes fueled by FAANGM are a Covid crisis anomaly, but FAANGM valuations are not out of control. The PEG ratios of the FAANGM – that is, their price-to-earnings ratios divided by the growth rate of their earnings, a more thorough metric than a standard P/E ratio, have not been outlandish, even as the price of the S&P 500 was breaking a new record high last week. In the months ahead, due to Covid-induced economic anomalies, stock plunges should be expected. The anomalies are bound to add uncertainty along the road to recovery. In March and April, for insatnce, consumer spending plunged because people were not going out and spending. At the same time, government payments from the CARES Act arrived in consumer accounts, disposable income hit a new record high, and the savings rate simultaneously skyrocketed by nearly 400% -- and this was happening at worst point of the Covid crisis! These conditions are without precedent and may take months to unwind. The latest economic data show a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector in August, with new orders booming. Meanwhile, in the much more-important service sector, responsible for 91% of jobs in the U.S., the latest figure – while not as a strong as expected -- remained strong in August, and the unemployment rate dropped much lower than the 9.9% rate that was expected, to 8.4%.. Amid the fear of a bubble in the FAANGM and anomalies of the Covid pandemic, the U.S. recovery is chugging along, slowly working its way back to the economic peak of 2019. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting fulbrightteam@moneyful.com , and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work

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Putting The Market's Surge In Proper Focus

Putting The Market's Surge in Proper Focus It’s almost like the stock market is on another planet, with its record-breaking performance while the real-economy seems to be a different world. But when you take a closer look, the separation of the market from the real economy is not so mysterious but driven by “Covidnomics -- the unique economics of the Covid pandemic. The FAANGM companies -- Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft -– led the economic recovery after the Covid shutdown, and they have roared ahead of the broader market. But appreciation in shares of FAANGM share prices are magnified enormously in the performance of the major stock indexes, like the Standard & Poor’s 500, which weights each company by market capitalization –- the price times the number of all shares outstanding. The largest 25 companies in the S&P 500 account for about 42% of its return, while the smallest 25 of the 500 companies in the index accounted for just three-tenths of 1% of its return. The huge losses sustained by the smallest 25 companies are hardly a factor in the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index, but they reflect the world of pain in the real economy. Of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500, 294 suffered share-price declines so far in 2020 and the average loss was 24.1%! At the same time, it’s also important to note that the FAANGM stocks are not wildly overvalued. The PEG ratios of the FAANGM – their price-to-earnings ratios divided by their earnings growth rate – are not unreasonable, nothing like a stock-bubble of 1999! With stock indexes breaking records, remember that the S&P 500 is NOT the real economy. It’s just Covidnomics, just one of many financial economic anomalies caused by the Covid pandemic shutdown and recovery. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting fulbrightteam@moneyful.com , and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work

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Budget with Kenneth Robinson and Ed Fulbright on Mastering Your Money Radio

Many people are drowning in debt. They must deal with this debt issue in order to move forward in quest to find financial freedom or to be able to have the choice of working or not. Consumer debt including mortgages, auto loans, credit cards & student loans has increased to over $13.51 trillion dollars in the US. You have to make tough decisions about your spending and possibly your income. The most important step is to take action vs hoping your debt will go away. Taking action will forward to financial freedom and avoid you having to experience the pain of hitting rock bottom. You may have to file bankruptcy in order to have the chance at financial freedom. In order to avoid bankruptcy, you must control your spending.

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The Population Bust & Your Portfolio By Fulbright Financial Consulting, PA

If you’re retired or a pre-retiree, you probably remember a time when the world worried about the population explosion. Fears of overpopulation, we were told, would cause global food shortages in the final three decades closing the millennium. Well, that never happened! In fact, you can simply forget everything you ever heard about the coming population explosion! Across the world, nation’s are not challenged by a population boom but by a population bust! The world’s largest economic powers need more people — not less! An essay in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, a magazine published by the Council of Foreign Relations, points out a dramatic demographic shift is reshaping economies across the world. The typical pattern of modern economies is to develop a middle class that urbanizes, grows more educated, and more affluent, and then fertility rates collapse. The worldwide population bust is of more than academic interest. A nation’s demographic character is one of the two factors driving its economic growth. The size of a nation’s working age population multiplied by its rate of productivity determines its growth potential. The working age population in China — the world’s No. 2 economic power — is shrinking. So is the world’s third largest economy, Japan, as well as Germany, all of Europe, India and China.In contrast, growth in the U.S. labor force is expected to stay flat for the next decade, when the echo-boom kicks in and continues through 2049. . For the next generation or two of American, the growth in the working age population could figure prominently in the future of the wealth of the nation. The nation’s underlying demographic character is a strong financial economic fundamental for long-term investors in America but have you ever seen it covered in the financial press? We sponsor this financial advisor news service to provide independent, prudent, professional research for long term investors every week. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, email us at fulbrightteam@moneyful.com and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

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Strategic Asset Allocation For The Long Run By Fulbright Financial Consulting, PA

Tons of government, trade association, and private company sponsored data and research about the economy are released every day. We summarize what you need to know to invest intelligently for the long run in this series of videos every week. Much of the economic research is from independent economist Fritz Meyer. Fritz was the senior investment strategist at one of the world’s largest investment companies for over a decade. In 2009, he went independent — so he has no ties to any financial products, no conflicts of interest in analyzing financial economics.

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Fickle Financial Headlines Brighten By Fulbright Financial Consulting, PA

Last Friday, after the Census Bureau reported that retail sales, which drive 70% of U.S. economic growth, rose four-tenths of 1% in August, headlines abruptly turned positive. The retail data quelled growing concerns reflected in the press about the inversion of the yield curve, the 11-month plunge in manufacturing sector activity, the trade-war with China, and a global economic slowdown hurting the U.S. economy. Retail sales increased by four tenths of 1% in August over July driven by a surge in auto sales. Total retail sales in August were 4.1% higher than in August 2018, which is a strong jump considering the low inflation rate of about 1.8%. For the three-month period from June through August 2019, retail sales were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago, showing momentum slowing only slightly. Stock market volatility increased lately. Independent economist Fritz Meyer says declines of 2% have been occurring nearly once a month. The spate of spikes in volatility started in May 2018, recurred in a 19.8% plunge in December 2018, and two more spikes in fear struck in May and August 2019. All of the spikes in fear came after Federal Reserve pronouncements on interest rate policy and none were related to the U.S.-China trade or other fears in the headlines. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

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