Aging populations are reshaping the world’s largest economies; it’s caused a global savings glut and is driving current U.S. financial economic conditions. The demographic trends are behind the U.S. yield curve inversion and stock market volatility, but rarely make headlines in the financial press. Here are the facts. Germany’s working age population is shrinking, as is all of Europe’s, Japan’s and China’s, too. In contrast, the U.S. working age population is expected to grow in the years ahead. With the world’s largest economies home to a growing population of retirees, demand for secure retirement income is driving prices for sovereign bonds higher. The glut of savings from income-starved retirees is chasing the certainty of government guaranteed bonds, driving prices higher and yields down. Exacerbating the bond market problem, Germany, the world’s second largest supplier of sovereign bonds after the U.S., has been issuing fewer bonds to avoid burdening its growing population of retirees with paying down government debt. Shrinking the supply adds to the upward pressure on sovereign debt prices and depresses yields. In addition, rising likelihood of a recession in Germany, has forced its central bank to keep interest rates low to stimulate growth. This confluence of the demographic and economic slowdown has boosted demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, driving prices on long-term bonds higher and yields lower. With the yield on a three-month T-bill at 1.99% higher than the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, at 1.5%, the yield curve is inverted — as it has been for much of 2019. For the past several decades, yield curve inversions were rare and usually were followed within 18 months by a recession. So the current inversion has spread fears of a U.S. recession and caused increased volatility in the stock market in recent months. Retirement income investors may want to consider how lower yields on fixed income allocations in their portfolios might affect them in the years ahead, because the change in supply and demand for sovereign debt is being driven by long term demographics. Significantly, the yield curve inversion is caused by bond market supply and demand and not U.S. economic fundamentals. The baby-boom spawned an “echo” baby-boom generation and that makes the growth path of the U.S. comparatively favorable to the other major world economies. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from my work.

One of my favorite movies is “A Wonderful Life”. It is a Christmas Classic starring Jimmy Stewart. It is about man who believes he has been wasting his life in a bank and everyone was getting ahead in life but him. He thought this until an angel shows him all the wonderful things he has in his life. Do you need an angel in your life to show you what you are missing? I believe it may be a purpose and happiness.

Stocks have been more volatile because the difference between perception and reality of financial economic conditions is growing wider. The S&P 500 — the key benchmark of America — is supposed to price shares after discounting everything — the Federal Reserve’s policies, politics, inflation, and population trends. When fundamental facts grow harder to discern, stocks grow more volatile, and that’s what’s been happening lately, especially with the widespread misperception of the yield curve inversion. A yield curve inversion is when the yield on 10 year US Treasury Bonds is less than the yield on three-month T Bills. Since the 1960s, when investors thought the 10-year long term outlook for bonds looked worse than the three month outlook, inverting the yield, recessions usually followed 12 to 18 months later. While the recent inversion of the yield curve is perceived as evidence a recession is on the way, the reality is very different. The inversion of the yield curve currently is being driven by negative interest rates in Europe. Negative yields in Europe and Japan — an unprecedented condition in the largest economies in the world — is a new thing and it’s not widely understood.

After the yield curve inverted on Wednesday, August 14, financial headlines turned grim. ”Longer-term rates below shorter term rates are a clear signal from bond investors that they think the United States economy is on the downswing, that its future looks worse than its present.” But this widely-held view in the financial press may be relying more on the yield curve than they should. In the past, when the yield curve inverted, it was because investors saw fundamental economic measures slowing down, but that’s not happening now.

Part 2 of Do You Want To Retire Early? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN

It’s not the best of times, nor the worst. But the latest data is a tale of two of U.S. economies. From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged, and the latest monthly data shows it slipped further in July. This data series is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. At 51.2%, the manufacturing economy inched closer to indicating a recession could be on the horizon. Meanwhile, the survey of purchasing managers at non-manufacturing companies, those in the service economy, declined to 53.7% in July. It has also plunged from a record level in September, but it’s still well within its normal range. It’s much more important and it’s indicating growth is ahead.The “Service Economy” is not growing like it did during the tax-cut fueled peak of September 2018, but it’s doing okay. Continued growth is confirmed by the survey of 60 economists conducted in early August by The Wall Street Journal. The consensus forecast of 60 economic professionals for the next five quarters is for an average quarterly growth rate of 1.8%. That may seem paltry compared to the 3.1% growth rate in the first quarter, but it aligns with the long-term growth rate expected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. With the service economy expected to grow slowly through 2020, the manufacturing sector is more vulnerable to higher tariffs on U.S. exports to China. The tale of two economies is an epoch and the drama affecting manufacturing draws headlines but is not so important to the epoch story of America’s economic growth.

Do You Want To Retire Early Part 1? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN

Achieving a financially secure retirement requires careful planning, diligence saving, and prudent investing. But are we up to the task? According an overwhelming number of media pundits and articles, very few of us are planning responsibly for our retirement, and most of us are headed for a retirement of financial struggle. ​

The Standard & Poor’s 500 has been repeatedly breaking new all-time highs amid signs of slowing economic growth. With the expansion in its eleventh year, should you worry about all this uncertainty? (See Video) For the answer, take a look at this chart showing the performance of 13 assets since July 2011. Looking at returns across this broad array of investments, what stands out is the towering performance of U.S stocks, An investment in global stocks, excluding US stocks, grew to $1.74 versus the $2.63 on America’s blue-chips. The U.S. has led the world’s economic comeback since the global financial crisis in 2008. Of course, investors in U.S. stocks in the period following the financial crisis had no idea The Great Expansion and a historic bull market was about to begin. They took a risk and it’s paid off. The economic expansion is the longest in modern U.S. history and signs of slower growth have appeared in recent data. However, a recession is not on the horizon. Uncertainty about the future is a permanent condition.

Humans are prone to the herd instinct. Investors are often no exception. When everyone is buying, investors typically buy; when everyone is selling, they sell. In 2009, during the worst of the recession, a group of investors put under contract an apartment that had been foreclosed on by the lender. It took the investors 6 months to find a lender who would finance the property. Today the property is by far one of the best investments of the group. The value has shot up dramatically and the property has become a cash cow. Are all the bargains gone in a high priced market? We don’t believe so, but finding them is certainly more challenging. Anytime can be a good time to buy. But if you go along the crowd and sit on the sidelines with them, you may miss out on the best deals. Joining us for our discussion on Starting In Commercial Real Estate Investing is Doug Marshall who is calling in from his Portland Oregon office. After nearly four decades in the commercial real estate business – including financing, property management, and as an investor, Doug Marshall decided to write a book and share his secrets. He founded Marshall Commercial Funding, Inc., a commercial mortgage brokerage firm located in Portland, Oregon in 2003. Marshall helps clients secure the best possible financing for their rental properties but is most proud when client’s return for help with their next financing request. For the last decade, Marshall has become an investor in eleven commercial real estate properties valued at over $50 million around the Portland, Oregon-area. An Oregon native, Marshall earned his MBA at the University of Oregon. His latest book is “Mastering The Art of Commercial Real Estate Investing ” Welcome to Mastering Your Money, is Doug Marshall.