The latest data indicate the economy is not falling into a recession but is growing slower. If it feels like a snail’s pace, you should probably get used to it. The growth potential of the economy is the sum of the change in the working age population plus the change in productivity. That’s straightforward math. What’s it mean? Let’s break down the equation. Here’s the productivity side of the equation, the actual and expected change in the annual rate of productivity from 1948 through 2029. Productivity growth of the U.S. labor force has been in a slow decline over the decades. CBO, a non partisan research arm of the federal government, forecasts average annual gains in productivity lifting slightly to 1.9% through 2029. On the labor force side of the equation, the working age population exploded after world war 2 in the baby boom and peaked again in the late 1970s. Over the decades, growth in the labor force has gradually slowed, and it’s expected to continue to slow over the next decade. The consensus forecast of economists for a 1.7% growth rate for the next five quarters is indeed slower than previous decades, but it should come as no surprise. On the bright side, consumer spending and wages remain strong, and no recession is expected. And productivity in recent years has been much stronger than expected and accelerated sharply in recent months, and if the trend continues, the snail’s pace could get a surprise boost. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from my work.

Last Friday, after the Census Bureau reported that retail sales, which drive 70% of U.S. economic growth, rose four-tenths of 1% in August, headlines abruptly turned positive. The retail data quelled growing concerns reflected in the press about the inversion of the yield curve, the 11-month plunge in manufacturing sector activity, the trade-war with China, and a global economic slowdown hurting the U.S. economy. Retail sales increased by four tenths of 1% in August over July driven by a surge in auto sales. Total retail sales in August were 4.1% higher than in August 2018, which is a strong jump considering the low inflation rate of about 1.8%. For the three-month period from June through August 2019, retail sales were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago, showing momentum slowing only slightly. Stock market volatility increased lately. Independent economist Fritz Meyer says declines of 2% have been occurring nearly once a month. The spate of spikes in volatility started in May 2018, recurred in a 19.8% plunge in December 2018, and two more spikes in fear struck in May and August 2019. All of the spikes in fear came after Federal Reserve pronouncements on interest rate policy and none were related to the U.S.-China trade or other fears in the headlines. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

Society has done a huge disservice to young people by relying on outdated educational and workforce training models developed 50 years ago. Our one-size-fits-all approach that promotes college as the single path to a profitable, high-skilled profession is putting both the economy and an entire generation at risk. We face a national crisis of rising college costs, decreasing degree-requiring jobs and employer frustration with the younger generations in the workplace. Meanwhile, we’re pushing young people to obtain college degrees while simultaneously ignoring the importance of also acquiring valuable work skills. As a result, only 1 in 5 students feel prepared for today’s job market. We’re saddling them with enormous college debt for degrees that may not pay off.

One of my favorite movies is “A Wonderful Life”. It is a Christmas Classic starring Jimmy Stewart. It is about man who believes he has been wasting his life in a bank and everyone was getting ahead in life but him. He thought this until an angel shows him all the wonderful things he has in his life. Do you need an angel in your life to show you what you are missing? I believe it may be a purpose and happiness.

After the yield curve inverted on Wednesday, August 14, financial headlines turned grim. ”Longer-term rates below shorter term rates are a clear signal from bond investors that they think the United States economy is on the downswing, that its future looks worse than its present.” But this widely-held view in the financial press may be relying more on the yield curve than they should. In the past, when the yield curve inverted, it was because investors saw fundamental economic measures slowing down, but that’s not happening now.

Part 2 of Do You Want To Retire Early? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN

Do You Want To Retire Early Part 1? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN

Achieving a financially secure retirement requires careful planning, diligence saving, and prudent investing. But are we up to the task? According an overwhelming number of media pundits and articles, very few of us are planning responsibly for our retirement, and most of us are headed for a retirement of financial struggle. ​

The Standard & Poor’s 500 has been repeatedly breaking new all-time highs amid signs of slowing economic growth. With the expansion in its eleventh year, should you worry about all this uncertainty? (See Video) For the answer, take a look at this chart showing the performance of 13 assets since July 2011. Looking at returns across this broad array of investments, what stands out is the towering performance of U.S stocks, An investment in global stocks, excluding US stocks, grew to $1.74 versus the $2.63 on America’s blue-chips. The U.S. has led the world’s economic comeback since the global financial crisis in 2008. Of course, investors in U.S. stocks in the period following the financial crisis had no idea The Great Expansion and a historic bull market was about to begin. They took a risk and it’s paid off. The economic expansion is the longest in modern U.S. history and signs of slower growth have appeared in recent data. However, a recession is not on the horizon. Uncertainty about the future is a permanent condition.