Can You Spot The Hidden Trend? Can you spot the hidden trend? A major demographic trend that is driving the U.S. economy and financial markets is right here in front of your eyes, but it’s not so easy to see without a trained eye. If you knew what to look for, you’d see that China, Japan, Germany, and other major economies are grappling with a decline in their working-age population in the decades ahead, while the U.S. working-age population is expected to grow. Since growth in the size of the labor force is one of the two determinants in economic growth, it’s a key fundamental factor that will shape the future of financial markets. With the working age population stalling, Europe’s economic growth is sluggish. To stimulate the economy, Germany’s central bank has pushed lending rates into negative territory, which is unprecedented. Germany is the world’s second largest issuer of government-backed bonds and its action has depressed interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds. While the demographic trend is hidden in plain sight, it’s set to shape growth in major economies across the globe for the decades ahead, and it means low interest rate conditions could persist for years. No one can predict the next move in the stock market, but demographics are fairly stable and predictable. This is an important trend. Be sure your strategic investment plan — especially, your portfolio’s allocation to bonds — is in sync with this key fundamental. Please contact us with any questions fulbrightteam@moneyful.com or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

With stocks hovering around an all-time record high, a growing likelihood of a Federal income tax rate hike by 2021, and the deadline for end-of-year tax tactics closing in fast, this is a timely reminder to run a reality check on your retirement income plan. An unusual confluence of tax, financial-market and political factors make this a particularly good time for high-income and high net worth individuals to check their retirement income plan. Let’s get specific about current conditions: In 2019, the federal government is spending a trillion dollars more than it collected in revenue, and at the end of 2018, the national debt totaled $22 trillion Meanwhile, changing political winds could sweep in higher federal tax rates. Managing your tax bracket now — in case of a hike in federal income tax brackets — could lower your tax bill, not just for 2019 but in the year or two ahead, as well. Proactive tax planning before the end of 2019 may be especially timely for business owners with an interest in a pass-through entity, like an LLC, S corp, or sole proprietorship.

Major economic trends are always unfolding but are hidden in plain sight. Along these, only if you know what to look for would you see the spectacular After the Commerce Department released the latest monthly retail sales figures on Friday morning, the financial press and financial cable TV reported that October’s three-tenths of 1% uptick allayed fears of a recession but was nothing spectacular. The press totally missed the hidden trend in the economic picture by not adjusting retail sales for inflation. Inflation is at a long-term low and is not showing any sign of returning anytime soon to its performance in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. A low inflation rate masks strong real growth in consumer spending, but spotting it in the current investment picture requires a trained eye. Viewed from a prudent professional perspective, the newly released retail sales data helps explain why stock prices have been breaking records. Answers to life’s questions are often right in front of us, but we don’t see them. Please contact us with any questions fulbrightteam@moneyful.com or to set up a meeting at 919-544-0398, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

If you’re retired or a pre-retiree, you probably remember a time when the world worried about the population explosion. Fears of overpopulation, we were told, would cause global food shortages in the final three decades closing the millennium. Well, that never happened! In fact, you can simply forget everything you ever heard about the coming population explosion! Across the world, nation’s are not challenged by a population boom but by a population bust! The world’s largest economic powers need more people — not less! An essay in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, a magazine published by the Council of Foreign Relations, points out a dramatic demographic shift is reshaping economies across the world. The typical pattern of modern economies is to develop a middle class that urbanizes, grows more educated, and more affluent, and then fertility rates collapse. The worldwide population bust is of more than academic interest. A nation’s demographic character is one of the two factors driving its economic growth. The size of a nation’s working age population multiplied by its rate of productivity determines its growth potential. The working age population in China — the world’s No. 2 economic power — is shrinking. So is the world’s third largest economy, Japan, as well as Germany, all of Europe, India and China.In contrast, growth in the U.S. labor force is expected to stay flat for the next decade, when the echo-boom kicks in and continues through 2049. . For the next generation or two of American, the growth in the working age population could figure prominently in the future of the wealth of the nation. The nation’s underlying demographic character is a strong financial economic fundamental for long-term investors in America but have you ever seen it covered in the financial press? We sponsor this financial advisor news service to provide independent, prudent, professional research for long term investors every week. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, email us at fulbrightteam@moneyful.com and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from our work.

Tons of government, trade association, and private company sponsored data and research about the economy are released every day. We summarize what you need to know to invest intelligently for the long run in this series of videos every week. Much of the economic research is from independent economist Fritz Meyer. Fritz was the senior investment strategist at one of the world’s largest investment companies for over a decade. In 2009, he went independent — so he has no ties to any financial products, no conflicts of interest in analyzing financial economics.

The latest data indicate the economy is not falling into a recession but is growing slower. If it feels like a snail’s pace, you should probably get used to it. The growth potential of the economy is the sum of the change in the working age population plus the change in productivity. That’s straightforward math. What’s it mean? Let’s break down the equation. Here’s the productivity side of the equation, the actual and expected change in the annual rate of productivity from 1948 through 2029. Productivity growth of the U.S. labor force has been in a slow decline over the decades. CBO, a non partisan research arm of the federal government, forecasts average annual gains in productivity lifting slightly to 1.9% through 2029. On the labor force side of the equation, the working age population exploded after world war 2 in the baby boom and peaked again in the late 1970s. Over the decades, growth in the labor force has gradually slowed, and it’s expected to continue to slow over the next decade. The consensus forecast of economists for a 1.7% growth rate for the next five quarters is indeed slower than previous decades, but it should come as no surprise. On the bright side, consumer spending and wages remain strong, and no recession is expected. And productivity in recent years has been much stronger than expected and accelerated sharply in recent months, and if the trend continues, the snail’s pace could get a surprise boost. Please contact us with any questions or to set up a meeting, and don't hesitate to share this video with people who might benefit from my work.

Part 2 of Do You Want To Retire Early? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN

It’s not the best of times, nor the worst. But the latest data is a tale of two of U.S. economies. From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged, and the latest monthly data shows it slipped further in July. This data series is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. At 51.2%, the manufacturing economy inched closer to indicating a recession could be on the horizon. Meanwhile, the survey of purchasing managers at non-manufacturing companies, those in the service economy, declined to 53.7% in July. It has also plunged from a record level in September, but it’s still well within its normal range. It’s much more important and it’s indicating growth is ahead.The “Service Economy” is not growing like it did during the tax-cut fueled peak of September 2018, but it’s doing okay. Continued growth is confirmed by the survey of 60 economists conducted in early August by The Wall Street Journal. The consensus forecast of 60 economic professionals for the next five quarters is for an average quarterly growth rate of 1.8%. That may seem paltry compared to the 3.1% growth rate in the first quarter, but it aligns with the long-term growth rate expected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. With the service economy expected to grow slowly through 2020, the manufacturing sector is more vulnerable to higher tariffs on U.S. exports to China. The tale of two economies is an epoch and the drama affecting manufacturing draws headlines but is not so important to the epoch story of America’s economic growth.

Do You Want To Retire Early Part 1? F.I.R.E. is an acronym. It stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. There's a growing movement of people who are practicing FIRE principles and retiring decades earlier than expected as a result. Smart, often middle-income earners are using a simple formula of high savings rates (50-70% of their incomes) + frugal living (minimalism) + low-cost stock index fund investing (Warren Buffett’s standard investment advice) in order to reach financial independence within short, usually around 10-year periods of time. For obvious reasons, FIRE is sometimes referred to as “the ultimate life hack.” This large and growing community has an ever-increasing cadre of 100+ high-traffic bloggers, most of whom chronicle their FIRE journeys and publish details of their methods, and report their actual personal financial information along the way. It’s a fascinating voyeuristic genre with an alluring punchline: retire early and pursue your true passions! There is more and more journalistic coverage of FIRE. Just search Google News for “early retirement” or “early financial independence” and you’ll find almost daily coverage of this fascinating phenomenon. Joining us for our discussion on Do You Want To Retire Early? is who is calling in from his Seattle Washington WA office . Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via complimentary eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at Paulmerriman.com . He has 3 Complimentary Ebooks “First Time Investor: Grow And Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decision Guaranteed To Change Your Financial Future,” And “Get Smart Or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best And Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.” WELCOME BACK TO MASTERING YOUR MONEY, PAUL MERRIMAN